March 17, 2016

Live Roulette Strategy

Should I follow a strategy?

Since Roulette is primarily a game of luck, one might assume that employing a particular strategy when playing makes no sense. This is not the case. The best way to play is to devise a strategy prior to playing and sticking to it. Roulette is not a game for mixing it up, as the odds and pay outs only make sense over a number of consecutive spins. European tables carry better odds, hence the slight difference in odds for each of the above bets.
It is advisable to avoid the Basket bet, as well as the famous Roulette ‘systems’ such as the Martingale (doubling your bet every time you lose). Because of the way in which the human mind works, we tend to group, categorise and link single events to make inferences as to what will happen next. Each individual outcome on the Roulette table is independent of the previous, as well as the next. And remember, for each spin, there’s a house edge. If you happened to experience three ‘red’ outcomes in a row, it’s normal to expect a higher possibility that the next outcome would be black. This is not the case and in reality, the odds for the next outcome being black are exactly the same as the odds for the previous three outcomes having been black (which they weren’t).

It is always advisable to play out of a set bankroll, never exceeding your bankroll limit. You should also set a stop loss, which is different to having a separate bankroll. Say your stop loss is at €100. If you lose €100 on your first spin, then you would walk away from the table having counted your losses. If you win €500 and then lose €100 to fall back to €400, you would walk away with the €400. What’s great about such a system is that while losses are limited, wins are not.
And last but not least, when playing online, it is always smart to take advantage of any bonuses offered on Roulette. This will likely enhance your odds, so choose your casino smartly.

Roulette Betting Systems

We are aware that we’ve advised against the use of betting systems when playing Live Roulette, but that doesn’t mean that people don’t believe in them. So, let’s go through some of the most popular.
Martingale: Since it’s perhaps the most popular Roulette system worldwide, we’ll start with the one known as the Martingale System. This is a pretty easy one to grasp. The basic premise is for the player to double his or her even-money bet after every loss. Like that, it is said that the pay-outs will cover all the player’s losses and leave him or her with a profit that would equal his or her first bet amount. But there are some snags to think about here.
For example, what about the imposed table limit? Most Roulette tables will have table limits imposed, so even with a small losing streak, doubling your bet each time can have you go beyond the table limit, making you unable to cover previous losses.

D’Alembert: The D’Alembert system is used at several betting games but is most commonly used with Roulette. This is a system of negative progression, which means that players using the system would raise their bets following losses and decrease their bets following wins. The raises and decreases in bets are however, only of a single unit.
The player would determine a starting value for his or her bets (they would be even-money bets). If the starting bet won, the next would be of the starting value less one unit. If it lost, the next would be of the starting value plus one unit. And so forth… The problem here is the infamous gambler’s fallacy again. Remember that each outcome in Roulette is independent of every other.

Labouchere: The Labouchere is another system claiming to beat the game of Roulette. This is another system of negative progression, with the size of the betting increments and reductions being higher than the D’Alembert system, but lower than the Martingale system.
It requires the player to choose a sequence of numbers with the aim of winning the sum of his or her chosen numbers. For example, let’s choose the sequence 1 2 3 4. The aim is to walk away with 1+2+3+4 = €10.
Take the first and last numbers of the sequence (1 and 4) and add them to determine the first bet (€5). The bet must be of even money (red/black, odd/even, high/low). So, if you win, you remove the first and last numbers from the sequence and your next bet will be determined by the new first and last numbers in the sequence (2 and 3 = €5).
If you lose, add the lost bet value to the end of the sequence and the next bet will be determined by the new first and last numbers in the sequence. In this case, our new sequence would be 1 2 3 4 5, so our next bet would be 1 + 5 = €6. You would continue playing until all numbers in your sequence are eliminated.
A win removes two numbers from your sequence, while a loss only adds one. So in theory, the aim of walking away with the sum of the numbers in your sequence can be achieved with half as many wins as losses. So, in theory, you only need to win 33.3% of the time for this to work. The problem is that this is Roulette, and Roulette simply doesn’t behave according to theory.

Fibonacci: The Fibonacci system is also a negative progression system and is also employed using even-money bets. The Fibonacci system is based on the Fibonacci mathematical sequence, which in turn uses numbers to depict a perfect spiral. So, first of all, here’s the sequence:
0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610…
If you haven’t noticed yet, the sequence starts from 0 and is increased by one unit. Following that, each number in the sequence is the sum of the two numbers preceding it. So, that’s the Fibonacci sequence, but how is it applied to Roulette?

Firstly, eliminate the zero from the sequence. Then, choose a betting value. To illustrate this system simply, we’re going to choose €2 as a betting value. Now, each bet would be determined by our chosen betting value, multiplied by the numbers in the Fibonacci sequence.
So, our first bet is going to be of €2 – €2 x 1, which is the first number in the Fibonacci sequence. Subsequent bets will depend on whether we win or lose.
If we win, we would have returned to the beginning of the Fibonacci sequence, which would mean that we’ve come out of the game with a surplus of funds.
If we lose, our subsequent bets would be equal to our determined Betting value multiplied by the next number in the Fibonacci sequence. So, with a determined betting value of €2, on a losing streak, our first and second bets will be of €2 (€2 x 1), followed by €4 (€2 x 2), €6 (€2 x 3) and €10 (€2 x 5), and so forth.
If we win, and we’re well into our Fibonacci sequence, our next bet will be determined by our chosen betting value multiplied by the number that is 2 places back in the Fibonacci sequence. For example, if we bet €10 (€2 x 5) and win, then our next bet will be of €4 (€2 x 2, which is 2 places behind 5 in the Fibonacci sequence).
The idea is to always return to the beginning of the sequence, which would indicate that you’re at a position of surplus, and walk away at that point. Your surplus would be equal to your initially chosen betting value; in our case, €2.
The probability is for you to get back to the beginning of the sequence more often than not, because of the lower number of wins (than losses) you would need to do that. What you have to be careful of is the fact that when you win with the Fibonacci system, you win a relatively small amount to what you would lose when the system fails you.

Oscar’s Grind: This is a grind play, meaning that the idea is to win small amounts over a long period of time. Oscar’s Grind is also exclusive to even-money bets, but unlike the previous three systems, it is a progressive system, meaning that bets are increased after every win.
So, the idea here is for the player to end up with a determined bet value at the end of a sequence of bets. So, first, determine your unit value. Let’s say ours is €10. So, our first even-money bet will be of €10. The next bet amount will be determined by whether you win or lose that €10 and the idea is to walk away from the table with €10 in our pocket.
If we lose, the next bet would be of the same amount as the bet we’ve just lost; €10 in our case. If we win, the next bet is increased by our initial bet unit value (€10). But, there’s an overriding rule, which states that players should never bet more than they need to produce a win that is greater than the determined unit value (€10 in our case).
Here’s an example:
Bet No. Rule (Loss/Win) Bet Amount Win/Loss Player’s Bankroll
1 – €10 Loss – €10
2 Loss Rule €10 Loss – €20
3 Loss Rule €10 Win – €10
4 Win Rule €20 Loss – €30
5 Loss Rule €20 Win – €10
6 Overriding Rule €20 Win €10
In this example, we’ve managed to reach our goal – of walking away with the chosen unit value of €10 – after the sixth bet. Note that we didn’t increase the bet to €30 following the win on the fifth bet, because the overriding rule came into play. At this point, we’d either use our winnings to start over using Oscar’s Grind, or walk away with a smile (supposedly).
So, Oscar’s Grind is another system that works in theory. In practice though, things are not quite as straightforward, and you will find this to be true in view of any system you will try with the aim of beating the game of Roulette.

Paroli: The Paroli system is sometimes also referred to as the Reverse Martingale and is a positive progressive system that claims to minimise losses during losing streaks and maximise winnings during winning streaks.
Contrary to what is claimed on several blogs, the Reverse Martingale is so-called not because it is used to reverse losses caused by using the Martingale system, but because it is a positive progressive system by which the bets following wins are doubled, which is the exact opposite of what the Martingale system advocates.

The Paroli system is pretty simple, involving no number sequences or formulae. Simply choose a betting unit (e.g. €10) and make even-money bets. Following a loss, bet the chosen unit (€10 in our case). Following a win, bet twice the unit (€20 in our case). But, following a 3-bet winning streak, revert back to betting the unit (€10). Some people employ the Paroli system and revert to betting their chosen unit after a 4-bet winning streak. This however, is far less common.
Here’s an example of the Paroli system:
Bet No. Rule (Loss/Win) Bet Amount Win/Loss Player’s Bankroll
1 – €10 Loss – €10
2 Loss Rule €10 Loss – €20
3 Loss Rule €10 Win – €10
4 Win Rule €20 Loss – €30
5 Loss Rule €10 Win – €20
6 Win Rule €20 Win €0
7 Win Rule €40 Win €40
8 3-Streak Rule €10 Loss €30
So, as you can see from the above example, the Paroli system makes a lot of sense in theory. It’s a well thought out system. In fact, the Paroli system is not as likely to get you into trouble as some of the other popular systems out there.
Firstly, your highest bet is limited to your chosen betting unit multiplied by 4. And what’s even better about that is that you will only be betting that amount following two successive wins. So, it’s important that you avoid choosing a high betting unit, so as not to have your bets escalate beyond your means, as well as to avoid any table limit barriers.
What you are chasing with the Paroli system is a three-bet winning streak. The system assumes that winning and losing streaks will always occur and seeks to maximise the former and minimise the latter. The problem with this system? When playing Roulette, any kind of assumption related to the outcomes is foolish.
Hollandish: The last system we shall explore here is known as the Hollandish system, which looks at Roulette spins in groups of three. These groups are referred to as Hollandish Blocks and will together determine your betting amount for the following three spins.
Firstly, choose a betting unit – we’ll stick with our standard €10 for example’s sake. Like all other systems illustrated above, your bets must be even-money bets. For your first three spins, you will bet your chosen unit (€10 in our case) irrespective of whether you win or lose on those bets.
Once you’ve made your first three bets, you’ve got a block. The three outcomes of the bets within your block will determine your next three bets. If you get three wins, then bet your chosen unit again for the next block (€10 in our case). Do the same if you get 2 wins and a loss.
The above two outcomes are referred to as winning blocks. The other two possible outcomes (1 win & 2 losses / 3 losses) are referred to as losing blocks. Following a losing block, the bets for your next block must be raised in accordance with the following sequence (multiplied by the next unit in the sequence):
1 3 5 7 9 11 13…
So, if after our first three bets, we’re faced with a losing block, we’ll bet €30 on our next three spins. If we get another losing block, we’ll bet €50 on our next three. And so forth.
Let’s go through an example…
Bet No. Block Bet Amount Win/Loss Player’s Bankroll
1 A €10 Loss – €10
2 A €10 Win €0
3 A €10 Loss – €10
4 B €30 Win €20
5 B €30 Win €50
6 B €30 Loss €20
7 C €10 Loss €10
8 C €10 Loss €0
9 C €10 Win €10
So, it’s another well-thought-out betting system which makes hypothetical sense. It makes for a more reasonable approach to bet progression because it bases decisions on a group of outcomes and not individual bets (which have no relation to their subsequent bets). But group or no group, the relation to the next block is still inexistent. And that’s where the problem lies, as it does with any other system.

As a rule, each outcome in Roulette is independent of all others, and there is no system which addresses this basic fact. All systems make assumptions and because they do, they simply cannot work all of the time. This is because as we’ve said before, Roulette doesn’t behave in any sort of pattern.
So, should you choose to disregard our strategy advice and opt for a system you fancy, go ahead. But here’s some food for thought. Don’t you think that casinos are aware of these systems? Don’t you think that they would have tested each and every one of these systems to prove their worth mathematically? And if any of the systems would have been mathematically proven to work, do you think casinos would allow them, or bar any player caught using them, as they do with card counters? The fact that casinos will allow you to use the system should be all the proof you need that there’s no system that will beat the game of Roulette.